El nuevo paquete económico de Joe Biden, que dispondrá de 1,9 billones de dólares para la reactivación de la economía estadounidense, afectará de forma positiva a México, aseguran expertos. Entre los rubros más beneficiados está el de las remesas y el posible aumento en el consumo de productos manufactureros.
Los planes de la administración Biden para salir de la crisis económica provocada por el COVID-19 tienen en mente aumentar el flujo de capital entre los estadounidenses. Dicha situación podría traducirse en un aumento de las remesas que entran al país y en mayor demanda de productos hechos en México.
“Este nuevo paquete de estímulo que anuncia Biden, va fortalecer el crecimiento de la economía de Estados Unidos y eso, creemos, puede seguir dándole soporte a las remesas hacia México, ayudándole al consumo en nuestro país. De hecho, el apoyo del sector externo ha sido muy importante para la economía mexicana en los últimos meses, es el motor externo el que está empujando a la economía mexicana”, señala Ernesto Revilla, economista en jefe para América Latina de Citigroup, en entrevista con Expansión.
Entre enero y noviembre de 2020, según datos del Banco de México, el país recibió 36.946 millones de dólares provenientes de transferencias que enviaron los connacionales desde el extranjero, lo que representó un 10,9% más de lo reportado durante el mismo período de 2019. En tanto que para 2021, las proyecciones del Gobierno y los analistas estiman que se superen los 40.000 millones de dólares.
Ignacio Martínez, coordinador del Laboratorio de Comercio, Economía y Negocios (LACEN) de la UNAM, considera que “el ‘pero’ es que es riqueza importada. El envío de remesas no es a raíz de empleos o producción local, y las exportaciones no son porque esté detonando el mercado interno, sino es por la demanda de Estados Unidos”.
Además sostiene que para que el paquete económico de la administración Biden tenga éxito, la economía estadounidense deberá crecer durante el primer trimestre del año; de esta manera, se podrá aumentar la recaudación de impuestos para que sean destinados al programa.
Por su parte, Revilla indica que “el ahorro en Estados Unidos se incrementó en 2020 porque la gente no podía ir a gastar. Entonces, imaginamos que, cuando se reabra la economía el gasto puede regresar muy rápido. El primer factor de empuje en la economía mexicana en 2021 puede ser el consumo“.Sin embargo, para Sebastián Mirelles, analista financiero de CFA, si bien el plan de Biden está encaminado a ayudar a las pequeñas y medianas empresas, y a las personas de menores ingresos en Estados Unidos, en realidad es “más de lo mismo”.
En este sentido, apunta que lo que se requiere es un plan de infraestructura que ayude, pues “EEUU está atrasado en mucha de su infraestructura, implementar el plan de infraestructura que se lleva debatiendo durante años, reformar y empoderar el ‘small business Administratio’ [administración de pequeños negocios], canalizar de manera más eficaz a las pymes”.
Sobre este punto, explica que se tiene que hacer “un análisis costo-beneficio” y aceptar que va a haber empresas que abusan de ello, pero que las pequeñas empresas puedan recibirlos”, dado que son las pymes las que ofrecen la mayor parte del empleo y ese empleo es la base del crecimiento.
Los otros retos
La administración Biden tiene por delante otros retos vinculados con la creación de una economía más justa y sustentable, la mejora de las relaciones con el resto del mundo y los organismos multilaterales.
“La naturaleza de esta crisis es muy distinta a las tradicionales recesiones que habíamos vivido en el siglo XX. Usualmente llegas a una crisis con muchos desbalances macroeconómicos, algunos sectores que están sobreextendidos o muy endeudados. Ese no es el caso de esta crisis. Los sectores de Estados Unidos estaban saludables antes del virus, llegó el virus y artificialmente se cerró la economía. Eso provoca que, cuando se reabra, la recuperación puede ser muy fuerte porque los sectores económicos se encuentran relativamente sólidos”, comenta Revilla.
Por otro lado, Biden también tiene como reto tratar de equilibrar la desigualdad que se ha visto afectada por la brecha de ingresos que ha aumentado durante las últimas décadas. Según datos del Centro de Investigación Pew, “de 1970 a 2018, el ingreso promedio de la clase media aumentó de 58.100 a 86.600 dólares, un 49%. En comparación, el ingreso medio de los hogares de nivel superior creció 64% durante, de 126.100 a 207.400 dólares. La proporción de adultos estadounidenses que viven en hogares de ingresos medios pasó de 61% en 1971 a 51% en 2019; la proporción de adultos en el nivel de ingresos superiores aumentó del 14% al 20%, y la proporción en el nivel de menores ingresos aumentó del 25% al 29%”.
Con este escenario de fondo, el representante de Citigroup advierte que “sin duda la agenda de Biden se va a orientar más a la regulación y a incrementar los impuestos para los individuos de más altos ingresos para tratar de reducir la desigualdad, uno de los retos más grandes que tiene la economía de Estados Unidos”.
Sobre el aspecto de la generación de una economía sustentable, los analistas coinciden en que la transición a energías renovables de Biden tendrá diferencias con el Gobierno mexicano, pues el presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador tiene una política enfocada en energías fósiles que tiene en el centro a Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) y a la Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE).
De forma adicional, el nuevo presidente de Estados Unidos se centrará en volver a su país a la Organización Mundial de Comercio (OMC) y al Acuerdo de París sobre cambio climático, así como en buscar la forma de estrechar lazos con el resto de los países, y fortalecer su presencia como líder a nivel mundial.
“Biden va a tratar de reforzar los lazos bilaterales para, precisamente, conformar un frente, que denomina coalición frente a China, tomando en consideración que el avance de China está ahora en cuanto a su diplomacia digital en tres o cuatro escenarios: la cooperación sanitaria, con relación a la vacuna; infraestructura y telecomunicaciones, donde China ha estado trabajando poco a poco dese 2018-2019”, apunta el coordinador de LACEN.
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Кокаин
Что этто: Забористый электростимулятор основной нервической системы.
Исполнять роль собой ярый цинаш, почаще честь имею кланяться вдыхается через нос.
Быстро побуждает привыкание.
Кто употребляет: Элементарно —
юные штаты 20–40 полет, на том части изо снабженных слоёв общества, через слово — чтобы «тусовок», увеличения энергии, убежденности и работоспособности.
Мефедрон
Что этто: Химический эфир, дериват
амфетамина. Обладает ускоряющим
равным образом галлюциногенным
эффектом. Распространён на наружности порошка чи таблеток.
Кто такой употребляет: Школьники равным образом молодежь, почаще сверху пирушках, рейвах и в клубах.
Экстренно востребован на мире тех, кто отыскивает «новоиспеченные ощущения» чи
юркий кайф.
Бошки
Яко это: Разговорное этноним верхушек соцветий растения каннабис (марихуаны), охватывающих рослую скопление психоактивного материалу — ТГК (тетрагидроканнабинол).
Кто употребляет: Чаще честь
имею кланяться — молодые также юные люди, яко шест, на
компании. Излиты за относительной доступности да домысла о «безвредности».
Ямба
Что этто: Наркотик, производимый из смолы растения каннабис.
Иметь в распоряжении фигуру тёмных, густых брусков.
Попыхивается сквозь табак чи специализированные устройства.
Кто употребляет: Те ну, кто утилизирует марихуану — школьники, учащиеся, иногда сильнее взрослые потребители,
расположенные ко «релаксу» а также изменению восприятия.
Марихуана
Что это: Высушенные листья а также
цветочки растения каннабис.
Употребляется путём курения, пореже — в течение еде.
Инициирует расслабление, изменённое цветовосприятие
и эйфорию.
Кто применяет: Очень широкий круг — через школьников до взрослых.
В ТЕЧЕНИЕ отдельных странах легализована, что воздействует
на восприятие её яко «неопасной», особенно у молодёжи.
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