La tasa de ahorro interno neto de EEUU ha sufrido la mayor caída de la historia, lo que hace que la economía dependa aún más del dinero extranjero, escribe el economista estadounidense Stephen Roach en su artículo para Bloomberg.
El dólar no ha dejado de caer desde que la pandemia del COVID-19 se instaló en Estados Unidos en marzo de 2020. La moneda bajó entre un 10% y un 12% en relación con los principales socios comerciales de EEUU y cayó a sus niveles más débiles desde principios de 2018, dice el artículo.
“Hay más cosas por venir”, advierte Roach.
El economista pronosticó en junio del año pasado que el dólar caería un 35% para finales de 2021. El pronóstico se basó en tres factores: el déficit de la cuenta corriente, el crecimiento del euro y las acciones de la Reserva Federal.
Y ahora, Roach “está aún más convencido de la debilidad del dólar que hace seis meses”.
Déficit de la cuenta corriente
Como se esperaba, el déficit de la balanza por cuenta corriente se deterioró aún más al ampliarse hasta el 3,4% del producto interior bruto en el tercer trimestre. “En su nivel actual el déficit está en su peor momento desde finales de 2008”, dice el analista.
El deterioro, según Roach, está impulsado por unos “explosivos aumentos del déficit presupuestario federal relacionados con COVID”.La tasa de ahorro interno neto —ahorro ajustado a la depreciación de las empresas, los particulares y el sector público— cayó por debajo de cero en el segundo y el tercer trimestre por primera vez en una década.
Roach calcula que los paquetes combinados de alivio de COVID suman cinco billones de dólares o el 24% del PIB de 2020.
“Aunque no se trata de un estímulo en el sentido convencional, esta inyección fiscal bate todos los récords modernos por un amplio margen. La tasa de ahorro interno, como resultado, debería hundirse aún más por debajo de cero, poniendo el ya amplio déficit por cuenta corriente bajo una presión a la baja aún más intensa”, analiza.
El euro
El euro se ha movido poco en la primera mitad del año al subir alrededor de un 7% de febrero a mayo, señala el autor: “Esto se debe a que la unión monetaria tenía un defecto crítico: una moneda y un banco central únicos, pero sin una política fiscal unificada”.
Sin embargo, en julio, la canciller alemana, Angela Merkel, y el presidente francés, Emmanuel Macron, llegaron a un acuerdo sobre un paquete de ayuda que incluía un respaldo fiscal panregional de 750.000 millones de euros —908.000 millones de dólares—, y se autorizó la emisión de bonos soberanos.
Esta situación se viene dando paulatinamente no solo a causa de la crisis mundial del COVID-19, sino también por las revueltas sociales en el interior del país y las mismas elecciones presidenciales.
https://t.co/Qvki6XGpOG
— Sputnik Mundo (@SputnikMundo) December 2, 2020
“Esto añade la pieza fiscal que faltaba a la unión monetaria, proporcionando muy posiblemente un ‘momento hamiltoniano’ para la moneda principal más infravalorada del mundo”, explica.
La Reserva Federal
Cuando los déficits por cuenta corriente están bajo presión, normalmente se puede contar con el Banco Central para que acuda al rescate endureciendo la política monetaria. “Y este no es el caso de la Reserva Federal actual”, comenta Roach.
El autor señala que la Fed “haría poco en respuesta a cualquier debilidad” de la moneda estadounidense.
“Dado que Estados Unidos depende cada vez más del capital extranjero para compensar su creciente escasez de ahorro interno y que las medidas de flexibilización cuantitativa de la Reserva Federal crean un enorme exceso de liquidez, los argumentos para un mayor debilitamiento del dólar parecen más convincentes que nunca”, agrega.Según el economista, una pandemia y una economía al borde de una doble recesión no dejan a la Administración Biden otra opción que la de optar por otra ronda de alivio fiscal masivo.
“Este resultado tendría consecuencias para cualquier economía. Para Estados Unidos, que no quiere ahorrar, significa un dólar más débil”, concluye el autor.
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