Los especialistas de la compañía consultora estadounidense Eurasia Group compilaron una lista de los retos globales a los que se enfrentará el mundo en el 2021. Entre ellos figura el cambio climático, la división política en EEUU y los problemas sociales en América Latina.
El primer desafío, según los expertos, es el hecho de que el presidente electo de EEUU, Joe Biden, tendrá que gobernar un país donde aproximadamente la mitad de la población lo consideraría un presidente ilegítimo.
El país norteamericano se enfrenta a grandes desafíos, como el desempleo, la falta de oportunidades económicas, las dudas acerca de la efectividad política e incluso la edad del mandatario electo, así como del futuro del Partido Republicano y la legitimidad del modelo político estadounidense. La solidez de la política exterior e interna de EEUU se pondrá a prueba en el 2021, afirman los analistas.
El segundo problema a enfrentar son los efectos de la pandemia de coronavirus, como las grandes deudas públicas, los despidos masivos y la desconfianza hacia las autoridades. Además, en su informe los expertos sugieren que la implementación de vacunas aumentará la brecha entre ricos y pobres.El tercer problema en la lista es la lucha contra el cambio climático, ya que la cooperación global en este ámbito podría dar paso a la competencia, opinan los especialistas.
Los esfuerzos de EEUU para reclutar aliados, la diplomacia de las vacunas y la competencia en la tecnología climática complicarán aún más las relaciones entre el país norteamericano y China y aumentarán las tensiones entre ambos estados.
Además, como otros riesgos clave del 2021 los expertos mencionan los posibles conflictos en el ciberespacio, los problemas en la economía de Turquía y el debilitamiento de las economías de Oriente Medio debido a los bajos precios del petróleo.
La salida del líder más importante de Europa, la canciller Angela Merkel, también supone un gran problema, en este caso para la Unión Europea.
En el estudio se destaca también la complicada situación en América Latina provocada por la pandemia. A medida que salgan de la pandemia, los países de la región se enfrentarán a problemas políticos, sociales y económicos más agudos a los de crisis. Las vacunas no estarán disponibles en general hasta el segundo semestre del 2021. Además, los países latinoamericanos no estarán en condiciones de hacer frente a otra ola de coronavirus antes de la fecha mencionada, afirman los expertos de Eurasia Group.
En cinco países de la región se celebrarán elecciones: las legislativas en Argentina y México y las presidenciales en Ecuador, Perú y Chile. Todos ellos han experimentado un deterioro fiscal significativo debido al aumento de gastos para mitigar los efectos económicos de la pandemia. Dado el aumento de la pobreza, la creciente desigualdad y el alto nivel de desempleo, los dirigentes débiles no estarán dispuestos a tomar decisiones políticamente costosas, como hacer recortes sociales. Las elecciones incentivarán a las autoridades legislativas a impulsar políticas que presionen más el presupuesto de sus países.
En Argentina el presidente Alberto Fernández saldrá debilitado de las elecciones legislativas, dada la grave situación económica, lo que reducirá más su capacidad de imponer ajustes fiscales y adoptar medidas para reducir la inflación. En México la popularidad del presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador seguirá siendo alta, y su partido gobernante, Morena (Movimiento Regeneración Nacional), mantendrá la mayoría en la Cámara Baja, lo que le permitirá mantener el control sobre la agenda política, lo cual socavará el entorno empresarial, afirman en Eurasia Group.Los altos niveles de descontento social abrirán la puerta a los candidatos populistas, sobre todo en los países donde se celebrarán las elecciones presidenciales. Este riesgo es más alto en Ecuador, donde el candidato moderado Guillermo Lasso enfrentará una verdadera batalla, poniendo en peligro el programa del FMI y la estabilidad económica del país.
En Perú el creciente descontento abre la puerta a un candidato desconocido y unos cambios que estarán lejos de las políticas ortodoxas y amigables con los inversores que han sido la norma durante varias décadas. En Chile el ciclo electoral coincide con la reforma constitucional en el contexto de un descontento generalizado, con más protestas violentas. Un candidato de izquierda que amenace con cambiar la dirección política actual podría tener éxito.
Oriente Medio es el perdedor indiscutible en la crisis del coronavirus, pero América Latina ocupa un sólido segundo puesto, concluyen los expertos de Eurasia Group.
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