El presidente chino, Xi Jinping, dio un nuevo mensaje la semana pasada en el Foro Económico Mundial. China dijo que defendería la globalización frente a las fuerzas populistas que quieren terminar con el libre comercio.
El lunes, Donald Trump le entregó las llaves a Xi y el tanque lleno al abandonar el Acuerdo de Asociación Transpacífico (TPP) en uno de sus primeros actos como presidente.
La decisión de Trump de abandonar el mayor acuerdo de libre comercio en la historia deja la puerta abierta para que Beijing imponga su propio estilo de comercio en una región que es hogar de muchas de las economías de mayor crecimiento del mundo.
Trump, quien hizo de las políticas comerciales proteccionistas la piedra angular de su campaña, ha descrito al TPP como un “desastre realizado e impulsado por intereses especiales que quieren violar a nuestro país”. También ha prometido renegociar el TLCAN.
Edward Alden, miembro del Consejo de Relaciones Exteriores, dijo que estaba “desconcertado” sobre por qué Trump intentaría renegociar el TLCAN, que regula el comercio con México y Canadá, al mismo tiempo que abandona el TPP.
“Trump ha entregado una enorme fuente de influencia sobre China”, dijo Alden. “La primera regla de la negociación es no dar algo a cambio de nada, y ha hecho eso de entrada”.
China probablemente se envalentone por el retroceso de Trump. El senador John McCain, excandidato a la presidencia por parte del partido republicano, dijo que era una “señal preocupante” de retirada en un momento en el que “menos podemos costearlo”.
“Esto creará una apertura para que China reescriba las reglas económicas del camino a costa de los trabajadores estadounidenses”, agregó McCain.
Beijing ya se encuentra impulsando su propio acuerdo comercial llamado Asociación Económica Comprehensiva Regional (RCEP, por sus siglas en inglés). Este incluye a muchos países, como Japón y Australia, que estarían en el TPP.
Si el RCEP es exitoso, China estaría en una posición más fuerte para liderar un área mayor de libre comercio en el futuro. En Asia, algunos países como Filipinas se están alineando con China.
Los funcionarios chinos también están invitando a naciones latinoamericanas al RCEP.
Los críticos temen que Beijing establezca cada vez más las reglas y estándares globales que gobiernen el comercio.
El TPP incluía provisiones que requerían que países como Vietnam y Brunei observaran los estándares internacionales con respecto al trabajo forzado y negociaciones colectivas, principios valorados por Estados Unidos.
“No podemos permitir que países como China escriban las reglas para la economía mundial”, dijo el expresidente Obama el año pasado. “Nosotros deberíamos escribir esas reglas”, agregó.
No está claro qué reglas podría impulsar Beijing. A pesar de la fuerte defensa de la globalización por parte de Xi, China con frecuencia protege sus empresas estatales a expensas de las firmas extranjeras. También restringe el acceso a sus mercados internos.
Xi ha defendido esa estrategia, diciendo que China ha sido exitosa por seguir un camino que estaba ideado para acomodarse a sus necesidades. No buscará imponer sus estándares a otras naciones, dijo.
China parece estar satisfecha con la oportunidad que se le ha otorgado. El ministro de relaciones exteriores de China dijo este martes que se estaba logrando un buen progreso en el RCEP y las negociaciones podrían concluir pronto.
“Estamos dispuestos a trabajar con todos los países para impulsarnos en momentos de dificultad para que podamos cumplir con nuestra responsabilidad y esforzarnos para resolver los problemas a los que se enfrenta el mundo ahora”, dijo la vocera Hua Chunying.
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