La UE y China, dos superpotencias geoeconómicas, se aprovechan del hiato de la transición entre Trump y Biden para formular un Acuerdo Integral de Inversiones, pese a la oposición de EEUU que tampoco puede frenar la reanudación, detenida por las sanciones de Washington, del gasoducto Nord Stream 2 entre Alemania y Rusia. EEUU queda aislado.
Dos principales actores geoeconómicos del planeta mueven sus piezas para posicionarse en el mundo pos-COVID-19: la Unión Europea y China anuncian un Acuerdo Integral de Inversiones (CAI, por sus siglas en inglés) por miles de millones de dólares, pese a la franca oposición de EEUU tanto con el saliente Trump como con el entrante Biden.
Antes se había escenificado el asombroso despegue del 15-RCEP encabezado por China y al que se sumaron Japón y Corea del Sur, dos potencias geoeconómicas del noreste asiático —además de los 10 países del bloque del sudeste asiático ASEAN y dos países de la anglósfera, Australia y Nueva Zelanda—, al unísono de la salida definitiva de Gran Bretaña de la Unión Europea para conectarse con la región Indo-Pacífico a la que paradójicamente no pertenece, salvo como expotencia colonial.
A 21 días de la programada toma de posesión de Joe Biden, mientras el presidente Trump define su suerte el 5 y 6 de enero respectivamente —con el desempate de los dos asientos senatoriales en Georgia y con la votación por el Congreso del resultado del Colegio Electoral—, la Unión Europea y China anuncian rimbombantemente su crucial Acuerdo Integral de Inversiones: CAI para los europeos, BIT para los chinos.
Después de siete años de arduas negociaciones, finalmente China y la Unión Europea concretan un “épico (sic) Tratado Bilateral de Inversiones (BIT, por sus siglas en inglés)” entre la “máxima economía desarrollada del mundo y la más grande economía en vías de desarrollo”, según Global Times, portavoz oficioso del Partido Comunista Chino.
Global Times se da el lujo de publicar una gráfica didáctica de los principales rubros del BIT.
El rotativo chino juzga que se trata de “otro mayor triunfo (sic) para el multilateralismo después de un gigantesco acuerdo comercial de China con otras 14 economías de la región Asia-Pacífico”.
Destaca que se hayan podido sortear las “discrepancias ideológicas y políticas”, además de las “poco veladas obstrucciones de EEUU”.
Zhao Junjie, investigador de la Academia de Ciencias Sociales de China, expuso las necesidades de Europa de los capitales chinos para combatir el COVID-19 y “revitalizar su economía”.
Zhao comentó que “la Unión Europea se encuentra detrás de China en términos de la economía digital, como la computación en la nube, pero puede proveer bastante experiencia en las industrias verdes como las emisiones de carbón”.
A mi juicio, se trata de otro gran triunfo geoeconómico de China que empieza a concretar sus famosas “tres Rutas de la Seda” —la continental, la marítima y la del Ártico—, cuyo destino final es Europa, principalmente su mayor potencia geoeconómica que es Alemania.
Se trata de un win-win cuando China requiere del mercado de la Unión Europea —de 27 países, 448 millones de habitantes y con un PIB de 15,6 billones de dólares—, y necesita de la complementariedad geoeconómica con China:con un PIB nominal de 14,9 billones y 1.400 millones de habitantes.
Suena azorante que el PIB nominal de los dos sea casi idéntico, aunque la pandemia arrojó a la Unión Europea a una recesión de -7,1%, mientras China ha reanudado su crecimiento a 2,1% y espera un rebote de 8,4% en 2021.
Queda claro que la Unión Europea opta por el resurgimiento de China, mientras congela sus tratativas futuristas comerciales con EEUU que hoy ostenta una severa recesión.
Mientras la ciudad china de Wuhan, donde supuesta y polémicamente inició la pandemia, festejó masivamente el Año Nuevo, la Unión Europea se encontraba recluida debido a la segunda ola con una nueva mutación del COVID-19.
La teleconferencia del mandarín Xi Jinping para el acuerdo CAI/BIT fue realizada con cuatro dirigentes europeos que se subsumen en el eje franco-alemán cuando la Unión Europea fue representada por dos alemanas —la canciller Ángela Merkel y la presidenta de la Comisión Europea Ursula Von der Leyen— y dos francófonos, —el presidente galo Emmanuel Macron y Charles Michel, presidente del Consejo Europeo.
Dígase lo que se diga —a fortiori después del Brexit cuya suerte acaba de ser sellada—,el eje franco-alemán representa el núcleo del poder europeo con Francia que le provee su paraguas nuclear y Alemania, su primera potencia geoeconómica, lo cual entiende perfectamente China.
Cabe señalar que Alemania constituye la primera potencia geoeconómica de la Unión Europea con un PIB de 3,8 billones de dólares, seguida por Francia con 2,6 billones de dólares.
Para la visión alemana, el superlativo acuerdo multimillonario de inversiones entre China y la Unión Europea “abrirá oportunidades lucrativas pese a las preocupaciones del récord de Pekín en Derechos Humanos”.
A mi juicio, la cantaleta de los “derechos humanos”, que deberían ser respetados a carta cabal por todos sus panegiristas, constituye una carta de negociación con la que le sacan concesiones a China a la que acusan en forma farisea de todos los males del planeta.
La anterior ministra de Defensa alemana y hoy presidenta de la Comisión Europea Ursula Von der Leyen escribió en su twitter: “La Unión Europea tiene el único mercado más grande del mundo, estamos abiertos a los negocios, pero estamos ligados a la reciprocidad y a jugar piso parejo y valores”.
Deutsche Welle traduce que el término mercantil de “jugar piso parejo” describe las reglas que previenen una competencia desleal.
Las empresas europeas tendrán mayor acceso a la manufactura, ingeniería, sector bancario, operaciones contables, bienes raíces, telecomunicaciones y consultorías. Además, los negociadores de la Unión Europea consiguieron la transparencia de los subsidios estatales de China.
Alemania se podrá beneficiar en el lucrativo mercado chino con sus marcas automotrices.
Según SCMP, el Gobierno comunista chino acordó apegarse a los parámetros de derechos humanos de la Organización Internacional del Trabajo.
El rotativo galo Le Monde muy cercano a su Cancillería, abulta los ‘trabajos forzados’ de los uigures, los musulmanes sunnitas de la provincia islámica autónoma de Xinjiang, y juzga que el acuerdo “contribuirá al reequilibrio” de las relaciones “asimétricas” entre un “mercado único europeo ampliamente abierto a las empresas chinas y un gigante asiático que cierra sectores enteros a las inversiones extranjeras beneficiando a sus gigantes nacionales”.
Hoy las inversiones de la Unión Europea en China alcanzan 150.000 millones de euros, mientras que la de los chinos en la Unión Europea es de 113.000 millones de dólares.
Según AP “China ahora es el segundo mayor socio comercial del bloque europeo detrás de EEUU, mientras que la Unión Europea es el principal socio comercial de China”.
Pese a las “amenazas y sanciones de EEUU”, que vende su gas más caro que Rusia, el barco ruso Fortuna reanudó la “construcción del último tramo en aguas alemanas a través del mar Báltico”. Hasta la fecha “se ha completado el 94% del gasoducto ruso que podrá llevar 55.000 millones de m³ de gas al año a Europa, a un costo mucho menor que el de EEUU.
En vísperas del acuerdo entre la Unión Europea y China, Jake Sullivan, próximo asesor de Seguridad Nacional de Biden, advirtió a sus ‘socios europeos’ sobre “nuestras preocupaciones comunes sobre las prácticas económicas de China”.
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Clean strains and a formed waist make this a timeless and stylish mother of the bride
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Not sure which color will work to best coordinate the mothers of the bride and
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Next, consider what silhouettes work best for
your physique kind and what features you’d like to highlight.
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