Los mercados temen que una victoria de Trump pueda desencadenar un caos económico y político mundial, creando una fuerte incertidumbre para los inversionistas que habían previsto una victoria de la demócrata Hillary Clinton, cuyas políticas eran vistas como más predecibles.
“Si la tendencia actual del mercado se mantiene o va más allá, es probable que haya bastante desapalancamiento y ventas forzadas mañana”, dijo Mohamed El-Erian, principal asesor económico en Allianz, en momentos en que los mercados globales perdían terreno.
Trump ha amenazado con abandonar acuerdos comerciales importantes e imponer barreras en Estados Unidos a las importaciones procedentes de países como México y China, lo que podría reducir los flujos de intercambio y golpear a un débil crecimiento global.
Jack Ablin, jefe de inversiones de BMO Private Bank en Chicago, cree que las acciones en Estados Unidos podrían caer hasta un 10 por ciento durante las próximos 10 sesiones si Trump es elegido para el cargo más poderoso del mundo.
“Los inversionistas no saben lo que él (Trump) va a hacer, las políticas que ha esbozado han sido vagas y su comportamiento es caprichoso”, explicó.
“Los mercados extranjeros, en particular los emergentes, recibirán la mayor parte del impacto. Ellos dependen más de las ventas a nosotros que nosotros de las ventas a ellos”, agregó.
Las turbulencias en los mercados también podría evitar que la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos suba las tasas de interés en diciembre, como se esperaba.
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