Qué habría ocurrido si John F. Kennedy hubiera sobrevivido al magnicidio de Dallas? ¿Habría entrado el republicano Thomas Dewey en la Guerra de Corea? ¿Qué habría ocurrido si hubiera cogido el testigo de Ronald Reagan en 1989 el progresista Michael Dukakis y no el republicano George H. W. Bush?
Son preguntas que nos hacemos a menudo los historiadores y los periodistas. No arrojan conclusiones sólidas pero nos ayudan a recordar que la realidad no tuvo por qué ser como fue.
El inesperado triunfo de Donald Trump ha empujado a muchos analistas a magnificar el impacto del resultado. Algunos dicen que los demócratas habían exagerado sus ventajas demográficas y que será muy difícil encontrar un candidato que lleve a las urnas a tantos afroamericanos como Barack Obama en 2008 o 2012. Otros aseguran que el colegio electoral otorga una cierta ventaja a los republicanos sobre los demócratas, que se han quedado fuera de la Casa Blanca en dos de las cinco últimas elecciones presidenciales pese a ganar el voto popular.
La realidad es mucho más compleja e invita a extraer conclusiones menos rotundas sobre el resultado. Hillary Clinton perdió cuatro estados por menos de dos puntos porcentuales: Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan y Wisconsin. Entre los cuatro suman 75 votos electorales. A la candidata demócrata le habría bastado ganar en tres de los cuatro para batir a su rival.
El recuento todavía no ha terminado y se puede seguir en esta hoja de cálculo. Clinton no ha dejado de aumentar su ventaja desde principios de noviembre y ya suma casi tres millones de votos más que su adversario. Trump le debe su condición de presidente electo a menos de 100,000 votos en tres estados del Medio Oeste. Su gran acierto como candidato fue movilizar a millones de votantes que no se molestaron en votar por Mitt Romney o por John McCain pero sería exagerado presentar su triunfo como la prueba del ocaso de los demócratas. La Historia está llena de señales que los observadores no supieron interpretar.
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