De entrada, vamos a calmar los nervios y la ansiedad del presidente de México, Enrique Peña Nieto. Puede estar tranquilo. Nadie espera nada de él. No conozco a nadie que crea que Peña Nieto va a defender exitosa y eficazmente a los mexicanos -dentro o fuera del país- frente a Donald Trump.
Esta tiene que haber sido una de las negociaciones más fáciles que haya realizado Donald Trump, el autor del libro The Art of the Deal. No tuvo que hacer nada. Solo gritó y amenazó y Peña Nieto le entregó la casa antes de que se la pidieran.
México y Estados Unidos ni siquiera se han sentado a negociar y Peña Nieto ya cedió frente a Trump en tres puntos esenciales: en cambiar el Tratado de Libre Comercio (TLC), en la construcción de un muro en la frontera y en la deportación de miles -quizás millones- de indocumentados mexicanos. Peña Nieto nunca opuso resistencia.
Muchos recuerdan cómo Peña Nieto se paralizó frente a Trump en esa fatídica conferencia de prensa en Los Pinos a finales de agosto (donde no se atrevió a decirle que México no pagaría por una extensión del muro en la frontera). Pero pocos recuerdan que Peña Nieto, ahí mismo, cedió en algo mucho más importante: en modificar el TLC.
“El próximo presidente (de Estados Unidos) encontrará a un socio para encontrar la ruta para modernizar el TLC”, dijo, repetitivo y nervioso, Peña Nieto. “Modernizar” es un eufemismo. Trump quiere cambiar el TLC para su beneficio o salirse del tratado y Peña Nieto le abrió la puerta. Literalmente.
Peña Nieto repitió su oferta de cambiar el TLC en su reciente discurso en Lima en la reunión de la APEC. “Más que hablar de renegociación, es hablar de modernización”, dijo. En lugar de decirle “no” tres veces a Trump -no a la modificación del TLC, no al muro y no a las deportaciones masivas, como lo sugirió el ex canciller Jorge Castañeda en este artículo del The New York Times (http://nyti.ms/2g3TlSR)- el Presidente mexicano se convirtió, de hecho, en un cómplice de Trump.
Esto parece una adaptación de ese chiste del Porfiriato: ¿Qué hora es?, pregunta Trump. La que usted ordene, responde Peña Nieto.
México, sin duda, tendría mucho que perder si se modifica el TLC. Más del 70 por ciento de las exportaciones mexicanas van a su vecino del norte. Pero Estados Unidos también perdería mucho.
El 15 por ciento de las exportaciones de Estados Unidos van a México, según el Banco Mundial. Esto genera entre cinco y seis millones de empleos en Estados Unidos. En el 2015 Estados Unidos exportó a México productos por 236 mil millones de dólares. Conclusión: ambos países pierden si se modifica el TLC.
Nadie gana en una guerra de aguacates y camiones. Nadie gana si te imponen 35 por ciento de impuestos a los productos que exportas. Pero en lugar de que Peña Nieto -al menos como posición inicial- le dijera que no a Trump, ya se agachó y cedió. La hora que usted diga, señor Trump.
Alerta: Trump no va a cambiar. Es un error creer que Trump, de pronto, se va a convertir en una monjita de la caridad. Escogió tácticamente a México como su enemigo al anunciar su campaña presidencial en junio del 2015, insultó a sus inmigrantes al llamarles “criminales” y “violadores”, quiere deportar a millones, insiste en extender el muro o reja en la frontera y ganó el voto blanco acusando a México (y a China) de robarles sus trabajos. Este es el enemigo que México tiene enfrente, no la versión azucarada e inocente de la diplomacia mexicana.
Es triste e ingenuo creer que como Peña Nieto invitó a su casa a Trump, ahora el Presidente electo se va a portar bien con México. No. Esas transacciones de cortesía quizás le funcionan al Presidente con contratistas de su propio gobierno. Pero no con Trump.
Trump no es un hombre de formas. Su objetivo no es quedar bien con su anfitrión en Los Pinos sino con los 62 millones que votaron por él. México para Trump es una piedra en el camino. No entiende la relación bilateral como algo esencial. México, dejémoslo claro, nunca será una prioridad para Trump.
Hay momentos para negociar y hay momentos para pelear. Este es un momento para pelear. Pero esto es algo que Peña Nieto no sabe hacer. Lo suyo, desde un principio, ha sido hincarse ante Trump.
Fuente: Jorge Ramos A.
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