La agencia calificadora de crédito Fitch dijo este martes que las rebajas de notas soberanas de mercados emergentes probablemente sean menos en 2017, pero no se detendrán completamente tras el número récord de recortes visto este año.
Un nuevo reporte de Fitch señala que la continuidad de las recientes alzas en los costos del crédito gubernamental y la apreciación del dólar, así como los cambios planteados a acuerdos de comercio por países como Estados Unidos, podrían afectar a las notas de los mercados emergentes en 2017.
En lo que va del año, 17 de los 20 recortes de notas soberanas de Fitch afectaron a mercados emergentes, y la agencia todavía mantiene perspectivas negativas -advertencias de recortes- para 20 de esos países, desde Turquía a Sudáfrica.
“Si bien pensamos que estamos potencialmente más cerca del final que del comienzo del ciclo de crédito soberano de los ME (mercados emergentes), probablemente veamos más rebajas en ME en 2017 antes de que la cartera se estabilice”, explicó Fitch.
“La amenaza de relaciones comerciales menos abiertas entre Estados Unidos y socios comerciales claves, entre ellos China, combinada con un dólar más fuerte sería en general negativa para los países emergentes”, agregó la agencia.
Fitch dijo que particularmente esa sería la situación de países con finanzas externas débiles, gran volumen de deuda en moneda extranjera o con ambas.
La agencia mencionó a Turquía, México, Indonesia, Sudáfrica y Brasil como los países con mayor nivel de requerimientos anuales de financiación externa bruta en relación a sus reservas en moneda extranjera.
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